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Veres Rivne U19 vs Minaj U19 — U19 League 2023

Veres Rivne U19
Veres Rivne U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Minaj U19
Minaj U19
5/3/2024U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 27NTB Veres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Veres Rivne U1956%
×Draw23%
Minaj U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veres Rivne U19
1.80
Minaj U19
1.01

Veres Rivne U19 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Veres Rivne U19
1.73
Minaj U19
1.00

allows per match

Veres Rivne U19
1.02
Minaj U19
1.87

finishing

Veres Rivne U19+0.00on par
Minaj U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne U19 ↓

Minaj U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Veres Rivne U19 or draw
79%
Veres Rivne U19 or Minaj U19
77%
Draw or Minaj U19
44%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne U19 wins by 2+
32%
Minaj U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Veres Rivne U19 1+ goals
83%
Veres Rivne U19 2+ goals
54%
Veres Rivne U19 3+ goals
27%
Minaj U19 1+ goals
64%
Minaj U19 2+ goals
27%
Minaj U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Minaj U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Minaj U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne U19 attack 1.73 + Minaj U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.80

Minaj U19 attack 1.00 + Veres Rivne U19 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Veres Rivne U19 scores more
56%
level
23%
Minaj U19 scores more
21%

Veres Rivne U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Veres Rivne U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Veres Rivne U19 1–0 Minaj U19

Veres Rivne U19 beat Minaj U19 1-0 in U19 League on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at NTB Veres in Rivne.