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Veres Rivne U19 vs Metalist 1925 U19 — U19 League 2023

Veres Rivne U19
Veres Rivne U19
FT
5 – 2
Metalist 1925 U19
Metalist 1925 U19
11/24/2023U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 15NTB Veres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Veres Rivne U1958%
×Draw21%
Metalist 1925 U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veres Rivne U19
2.12
Metalist 1925 U19
1.20

Veres Rivne U19 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Veres Rivne U19
1.73
Metalist 1925 U19
1.37

allows per match

Veres Rivne U19
1.02
Metalist 1925 U19
2.50

finishing

Veres Rivne U19+0.00on par
Metalist 1925 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne U19 ↓

Metalist 1925 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Veres Rivne U19 or draw
79%
Veres Rivne U19 or Metalist 1925 U19
79%
Draw or Metalist 1925 U19
42%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne U19 wins by 2+
36%
Metalist 1925 U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Veres Rivne U19 1+ goals
88%
Veres Rivne U19 2+ goals
62%
Veres Rivne U19 3+ goals
35%
Metalist 1925 U19 1+ goals
70%
Metalist 1925 U19 2+ goals
34%
Metalist 1925 U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Metalist 1925 U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Metalist 1925 U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne U19 attack 1.73 + Metalist 1925 U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.12

Metalist 1925 U19 attack 1.37 + Veres Rivne U19 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Veres Rivne U19 scores more
58%
level
21%
Metalist 1925 U19 scores more
21%

Veres Rivne U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Veres Rivne U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Veres Rivne U19 5–2 Metalist 1925 U19

Veres Rivne U19 beat Metalist 1925 U19 5-2 in U19 League on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at NTB Veres in Rivne.