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Verê vs Apucarana — Paranaense - 2 2020

Verê
Verê
FT
1 – 2
Apucarana
Apucarana
9/25/2021Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Vila do Mar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Verê44%
×Draw29%
Apucarana27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verê
1.25
Apucarana
0.90

Verê creates 39% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 24 away

creates per match

Verê
1.00
Apucarana
0.79

allows per match

Verê
1.00
Apucarana
1.50

finishing

Verê+0.00on par
Apucarana+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verê ↓

Apucarana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Verê or draw
73%
Verê or Apucarana
71%
Draw or Apucarana
56%

Winning margin

Verê wins by 2+
20%
Apucarana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Verê 1+ goals
71%
Verê 2+ goals
36%
Verê 3+ goals
13%
Apucarana 1+ goals
59%
Apucarana 2+ goals
23%
Apucarana 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Verê (draw refunded)
62%
Apucarana (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verê at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Apucarana away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verê attack 1.00 + Apucarana defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Apucarana attack 0.79 + Verê defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Verê scores more
44%
level
29%
Apucarana scores more
27%

Verê at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Verê will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Verê 1–2 Apucarana

Apucarana beat Verê 2-1 in Paranaense - 2 on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Vila do Mar in Verê, Paraná.