Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Verê vs Andraus Brasil — Paranaense - 2 2020

Verê
Verê
FT
0 – 1
Andraus Brasil
Andraus Brasil
4/17/2022Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Vila do Mar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Verê32%
×Draw31%
Andraus Brasil38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verê
0.95
Andraus Brasil
1.07

Andraus Brasil creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 21 away

creates per match

Verê
1.00
Andraus Brasil
1.14

allows per match

Verê
1.00
Andraus Brasil
0.90

finishing

Verê+0.00on par
Andraus Brasil+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verê ↓

Andraus Brasil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Verê or draw
62%
Verê or Andraus Brasil
69%
Draw or Andraus Brasil
68%

Winning margin

Verê wins by 2+
11%
Andraus Brasil wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Verê 1+ goals
61%
Verê 2+ goals
25%
Verê 3+ goals
7%
Andraus Brasil 1+ goals
66%
Andraus Brasil 2+ goals
29%
Andraus Brasil 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Verê (draw refunded)
45%
Andraus Brasil (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verê at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Andraus Brasil away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verê attack 1.00 + Andraus Brasil defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Andraus Brasil attack 1.14 + Verê defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Verê scores more
32%
level
31%
Andraus Brasil scores more
38%

Andraus Brasil at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Andraus Brasil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Verê vs Andraus Brasil

Andraus Brasil beat Verê 1-0 in Paranaense - 2 on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Vila do Mar in Verê, Paraná.