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Vere United vs Tivoli Gardens — Premier League 2019

Vere United
Vere United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tivoli Gardens
Tivoli Gardens
11/17/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Wembley Centre of Excellence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Vere United31%
×Draw28%
Tivoli Gardens41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vere United
1.08
Tivoli Gardens
1.27

Tivoli Gardens creates 18% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 100 away

creates per match

Vere United
0.73
Tivoli Gardens
1.24

allows per match

Vere United
1.29
Tivoli Gardens
1.44

finishing

Vere United+0.00on par
Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vere United ↓

Tivoli Gardens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vere United or draw
59%
Vere United or Tivoli Gardens
72%
Draw or Tivoli Gardens
69%

Winning margin

Vere United wins by 2+
12%
Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vere United 1+ goals
66%
Vere United 2+ goals
29%
Vere United 3+ goals
10%
Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals
72%
Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals
36%
Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vere United (draw refunded)
44%
Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vere United at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Tivoli Gardens away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vere United attack 0.73 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.08

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.24 + Vere United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vere United scores more
31%
level
28%
Tivoli Gardens scores more
41%

Tivoli Gardens at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tivoli Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vere United vs Tivoli Gardens

Vere United and Tivoli Gardens drew 2-2 in Premier League on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Wembley Centre of Excellence in Hayes.