Vere United 6–2 Lime Hall Academy: Result & Stats

Vere United

FT

6 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Lime Hall Academy

2/25/2024

Premier League · Round 20Wembley Centre of Excellence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vere United60%

×Draw23%

Lime Hall Academy17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vere UnitedExpected goals in this matchLime Hall Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.83

Vere United

1.79

Lime Hall Academy

0.83

Vere United creates 116% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 13 away

0.73

creates per match

0.38

1.29

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Vere United

0.73

Lime Hall Academy

0.38

allows per match

Vere United

1.29

Lime Hall Academy

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vere United+0.00on par

Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vere United ↓

Lime Hall Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vere United or draw

83%

Vere United or Lime Hall Academy

77%

Draw or Lime Hall Academy

40%

Winning margin

Vere United wins by 2+

35%

Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Vere United 1+ goals

83%

Vere United 2+ goals

53%

Vere United 3+ goals

26%

Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals

56%

Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals

20%

Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vere United (draw refunded)

78%

Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vere United at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Lime Hall Academy away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vere United attack 0.73 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 1.79

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.38 + Vere United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Vere United scores more

60%

level

23%

Lime Hall Academy scores more

17%

Vere United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Vere United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff