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Verdal vs Rana — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Verdal
Verdal
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Rana
Rana
8/19/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 16Verdalskalk Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Verdal31%
×Draw20%
Rana48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verdal
1.77
Rana
2.23

Rana creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Verdal
1.46
Rana
2.38

allows per match

Verdal
2.08
Rana
2.08

finishing

Verdal+0.00on par
Rana+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verdal ↓

Rana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Verdal or draw
52%
Verdal or Rana
80%
Draw or Rana
69%

Winning margin

Verdal wins by 2+
15%
Rana wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Verdal 1+ goals
83%
Verdal 2+ goals
53%
Verdal 3+ goals
26%
Rana 1+ goals
89%
Rana 2+ goals
65%
Rana 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Verdal (draw refunded)
39%
Rana (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verdal at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Rana away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.08 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verdal attack 1.46 + Rana defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.77

Rana attack 2.38 + Verdal defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Verdal scores more
31%
level
20%
Rana scores more
48%

Rana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Verdal 1 – 4 Rana

Rana beat Verdal 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Verdalskalk Arena in Verdal.