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Verdal vs Orkla — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Verdal
Verdal
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Orkla
Orkla
10/7/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 23Verdalskalk Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Verdal46%
×Draw21%
Orkla33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verdal
2.13
Orkla
1.78

Verdal creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Verdal
1.46
Orkla
1.48

allows per match

Verdal
2.08
Orkla
2.79

finishing

Verdal+0.00on par
Orkla+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verdal ↓

Orkla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Verdal or draw
67%
Verdal or Orkla
79%
Draw or Orkla
54%

Winning margin

Verdal wins by 2+
27%
Orkla wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Verdal 1+ goals
88%
Verdal 2+ goals
63%
Verdal 3+ goals
35%
Orkla 1+ goals
83%
Orkla 2+ goals
53%
Orkla 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Verdal (draw refunded)
58%
Orkla (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verdal at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Orkla away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verdal attack 1.46 + Orkla defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.13

Orkla attack 1.48 + Verdal defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Verdal scores more
46%
level
21%
Orkla scores more
33%

Verdal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Verdal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Verdal 1 – 2 Orkla

Orkla beat Verdal 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Verdalskalk Arena in Verdal.