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Verdal vs Mosjøen — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Verdal
Verdal
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Mosjøen
Mosjøen
7/22/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 12Verdalskalk Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Verdal52%
×Draw20%
Mosjøen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verdal
2.23
Mosjøen
1.61

Verdal creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Verdal
1.46
Mosjøen
1.15

allows per match

Verdal
2.08
Mosjøen
3.00

finishing

Verdal+0.00on par
Mosjøen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verdal ↓

Mosjøen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Verdal or draw
72%
Verdal or Mosjøen
80%
Draw or Mosjøen
48%

Winning margin

Verdal wins by 2+
31%
Mosjøen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Verdal 1+ goals
89%
Verdal 2+ goals
65%
Verdal 3+ goals
38%
Mosjøen 1+ goals
80%
Mosjøen 2+ goals
48%
Mosjøen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Verdal (draw refunded)
65%
Mosjøen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verdal at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Mosjøen away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verdal attack 1.46 + Mosjøen defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Mosjøen attack 1.15 + Verdal defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Verdal scores more
52%
level
20%
Mosjøen scores more
28%

Verdal at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Verdal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Verdal vs Mosjøen

Verdal beat Mosjøen 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Verdalskalk Arena in Verdal.