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Verdal vs Lillestrøm II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Verdal
Verdal
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Lillestrøm II
Lillestrøm II
8/10/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 16Verdalskalk Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Verdal45%
×Draw19%
Lillestrøm II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verdal
2.50
Lillestrøm II
2.23

Verdal creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Verdal
1.85
Lillestrøm II
2.31

allows per match

Verdal
2.15
Lillestrøm II
3.15

finishing

Verdal+0.00on par
Lillestrøm II+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verdal ↓

Lillestrøm II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Verdal or draw
64%
Verdal or Lillestrøm II
81%
Draw or Lillestrøm II
55%

Winning margin

Verdal wins by 2+
27%
Lillestrøm II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Verdal 1+ goals
92%
Verdal 2+ goals
71%
Verdal 3+ goals
45%
Lillestrøm II 1+ goals
89%
Lillestrøm II 2+ goals
65%
Lillestrøm II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Verdal (draw refunded)
56%
Lillestrøm II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verdal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Lillestrøm II away — creates 2.31, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verdal attack 1.85 + Lillestrøm II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.50

Lillestrøm II attack 2.31 + Verdal defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Verdal scores more
45%
level
19%
Lillestrøm II scores more
36%

Verdal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Verdal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Verdal vs Lillestrøm II

Lillestrøm II beat Verdal 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Verdalskalk Arena in Verdal.