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Veraguas vs Tauro FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Veraguas
Veraguas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tauro FC
Tauro FC
8/25/2024Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 6Cancha de fútbol de Atalaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Veraguas34%
×Draw28%
Tauro FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veraguas
1.12
Tauro FC
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 139 away

creates per match

Veraguas
1.16
Tauro FC
1.21

allows per match

Veraguas
1.23
Tauro FC
1.08

finishing

Veraguas+0.00on par
Tauro FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veraguas ↓

Tauro FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Veraguas or draw
62%
Veraguas or Tauro FC
72%
Draw or Tauro FC
66%

Winning margin

Veraguas wins by 2+
13%
Tauro FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Veraguas 1+ goals
67%
Veraguas 2+ goals
31%
Veraguas 3+ goals
10%
Tauro FC 1+ goals
70%
Tauro FC 2+ goals
34%
Tauro FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Veraguas (draw refunded)
47%
Tauro FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veraguas at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 74 matches

Tauro FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.08 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veraguas attack 1.16 + Tauro FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

Tauro FC attack 1.21 + Veraguas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Veraguas scores more
34%
level
28%
Tauro FC scores more
38%

Tauro FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tauro FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veraguas vs Tauro FC

Veraguas beat Tauro FC 2-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Cancha de fútbol de Atalaya in Atalaya.