Veraguas 1–1 Plaza Amador: Result & Stats

Veraguas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Plaza Amador

M. Camargo 27'

A. Quintero 48'

3/1/2026

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Veraguas31%

×Draw28%

Plaza Amador41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeraguasExpected goals in this matchPlaza Amador

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.25

Veraguas

1.05

Plaza Amador

1.25

Plaza Amador creates 19% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 137 away

1.16

creates per match

1.27

1.23

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Veraguas

1.16

Plaza Amador

1.27

allows per match

Veraguas

1.23

Plaza Amador

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veraguas+0.00on par

Plaza Amador+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veraguas ↓

Plaza Amador →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Veraguas or draw

59%

Veraguas or Plaza Amador

72%

Draw or Plaza Amador

69%

Winning margin

Veraguas wins by 2+

12%

Plaza Amador wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Veraguas 1+ goals

65%

Veraguas 2+ goals

28%

Veraguas 3+ goals

9%

Plaza Amador 1+ goals

71%

Plaza Amador 2+ goals

36%

Plaza Amador 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Veraguas (draw refunded)

43%

Plaza Amador (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veraguas at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 74 matches

Plaza Amador away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veraguas attack 1.16 + Plaza Amador defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Plaza Amador attack 1.27 + Veraguas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Veraguas scores more

31%

level

28%

Plaza Amador scores more

41%

Plaza Amador at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Plaza Amador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

27'

36'

37'

45+4'

46'

48'

59'

61'

64'

K. de Gracia← L. Villarreal

65'

J. Pacheco← O. Lopez

65'

Y. Murillo← J. Murillo

68'

78'

G. Cagua← F. Gondola

78'

H. Rios← E. Davis

87'

J. Gonzalez← M. Camargo

87'

J. Sagel← N. Zuniga

90+2'

90+6'

J. Emmons

Veraguas

Plaza

1

Castaneda

4

Sanchez

16

Yearwood

31

▼

Davis

22

Walters

14

Knight

21

▼

Murillo

20

▼

Murillo

7

▼

Gondola

29

▼

Lopez

19

⚽

1

22

6

21

12

5

25

▼

Villarrea

7

⚽

▼

Camargo

15

▼

Zuniga

9

Torres

14

▼

Rivera

46'▲E. Lopez←▼C. Rivera

64'▲K. de Gracia←▼L. Villarreal

87'▲J. Gonzalez←▼M. Camargo

87'▲J. Sagel←▼N. Zuniga

Veraguas substitutes

30Araya8Angulo26Batista13Gonzalez18Gracia20Rodriguez11Sagel28Montenegro38Wynter23Lopez

Manager: Mario Mendez

61'▲J. Lara←▼D. Murillo

65'▲J. Pacheco←▼O. Lopez

65'▲Y. Murillo←▼J. Murillo

78'▲G. Cagua←▼F. Gondola

78'▲H. Rios←▼E. Davis

Plaza Amador substitutes

23Allen48Pacheco5Cordoba6Lara10Buitrago15Murillo43Taivez17Cagua11Phillips27Rios

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Veraguas 1–1 Plaza Amador

Veraguas and Plaza Amador drew 1-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on March 1, 2026.

Goals: M. Camargo (27'), A. Quintero (48').

Veraguas vs Plaza Amador — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Veraguas 1–1 Plaza Amador