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Veracruz vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2018

Veracruz
Veracruz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
10/6/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Luis Pirata Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Veracruz30%
×Draw25%
Necaxa46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veracruz
1.23
Necaxa
1.59

Necaxa creates 29% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 140 away

creates per match

Veracruz
0.77
Necaxa
1.26

allows per match

Veracruz
1.92
Necaxa
1.70

finishing

Veracruz+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veracruz ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Veracruz or draw
54%
Veracruz or Necaxa
75%
Draw or Necaxa
70%

Winning margin

Veracruz wins by 2+
12%
Necaxa wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Veracruz 1+ goals
71%
Veracruz 2+ goals
35%
Veracruz 3+ goals
13%
Necaxa 1+ goals
80%
Necaxa 2+ goals
47%
Necaxa 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Veracruz (draw refunded)
39%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veracruz at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veracruz attack 0.77 + Necaxa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.23

Necaxa attack 1.26 + Veracruz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Veracruz scores more
30%
level
25%
Necaxa scores more
46%

Necaxa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Veracruz 0–0 Necaxa

Veracruz and Necaxa drew 0-0 in Liga MX on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Pirata Fuente in Veracruz.