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Veracruz vs Leon — Liga MX 2018

Veracruz
Veracruz
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Leon
Leon
9/29/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Luis Pirata Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Veracruz27%
×Draw25%
Leon48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veracruz
1.13
Leon
1.59

Leon creates 41% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 146 away

creates per match

Veracruz
0.77
Leon
1.27

allows per match

Veracruz
1.92
Leon
1.48

finishing

Veracruz+0.00on par
Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veracruz ↓

Leon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Veracruz or draw
52%
Veracruz or Leon
75%
Draw or Leon
73%

Winning margin

Veracruz wins by 2+
11%
Leon wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Veracruz 1+ goals
68%
Veracruz 2+ goals
31%
Veracruz 3+ goals
11%
Leon 1+ goals
80%
Leon 2+ goals
47%
Leon 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Veracruz (draw refunded)
36%
Leon (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veracruz at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Leon away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.48 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veracruz attack 0.77 + Leon defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.13

Leon attack 1.27 + Veracruz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Veracruz scores more
27%
level
25%
Leon scores more
48%

Leon at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veracruz vs Leon

Leon beat Veracruz 4-0 in Liga MX on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Pirata Fuente in Veracruz.