Veracruz 1–2 Atletico San Luis: Result & Stats

Veracruz

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico San Luis

8/24/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Luis de la Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Veracruz31%

×Draw25%

Atletico San Luis44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeracruzExpected goals in this matchAtletico San Luis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.55

Veracruz

1.25

Atletico San Luis

1.55

Atletico San Luis creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 124 away

0.77

creates per match

1.19

1.92

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Veracruz

0.77

Atletico San Luis

1.19

allows per match

Veracruz

1.92

Atletico San Luis

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veracruz+0.00on par

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veracruz ↓

Atletico San Luis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Veracruz or draw

56%

Veracruz or Atletico San Luis

75%

Draw or Atletico San Luis

69%

Winning margin

Veracruz wins by 2+

13%

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Veracruz 1+ goals

71%

Veracruz 2+ goals

36%

Veracruz 3+ goals

13%

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

79%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

46%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Veracruz (draw refunded)

41%

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veracruz at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veracruz attack 0.77 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atletico San Luis attack 1.19 + Veracruz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Veracruz scores more

31%

level

25%

Atletico San Luis scores more

44%

Atletico San Luis at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atletico San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff