Vera 0–2 Tenerife II: Result & Stats

Vera

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tenerife II

10/3/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 5Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vera39%

×Draw27%

Tenerife II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeraExpected goals in this matchTenerife II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.16

Vera

1.29

Tenerife II

1.16

Vera creates 11% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 74 away

1.50

creates per match

1.46

0.86

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Vera

1.50

Tenerife II

1.46

allows per match

Vera

0.86

Tenerife II

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vera+0.00on par

Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vera ↓

Tenerife II →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vera or draw

67%

Vera or Tenerife II

73%

Draw or Tenerife II

61%

Winning margin

Vera wins by 2+

18%

Tenerife II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vera 1+ goals

72%

Vera 2+ goals

37%

Vera 3+ goals

14%

Tenerife II 1+ goals

69%

Tenerife II 2+ goals

32%

Tenerife II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vera (draw refunded)

54%

Tenerife II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vera attack 1.50 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + Vera defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vera scores more

39%

level

27%

Tenerife II scores more

33%

Vera at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff