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Vera vs Las Zocas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Vera
Vera
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Las Zocas
Las Zocas
3/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 27Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vera68%
×Draw21%
Las Zocas10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vera
1.84
Las Zocas
0.55

Vera creates 235% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 16 away

creates per match

Vera
1.50
Las Zocas
0.25

allows per match

Vera
0.86
Las Zocas
2.19

finishing

Vera+0.00on par
Las Zocas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vera ↓

Las Zocas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vera or draw
90%
Vera or Las Zocas
79%
Draw or Las Zocas
32%

Winning margin

Vera wins by 2+
41%
Las Zocas wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vera 1+ goals
84%
Vera 2+ goals
55%
Vera 3+ goals
28%
Las Zocas 1+ goals
42%
Las Zocas 2+ goals
11%
Las Zocas 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Vera (draw refunded)
87%
Las Zocas (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Las Zocas away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vera attack 1.50 + Las Zocas defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.84

Las Zocas attack 0.25 + Vera defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vera scores more
68%
level
21%
Las Zocas scores more
10%

Vera at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Vera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vera 2 – 0 Las Zocas

Vera beat Las Zocas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma in Tenerife.