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Vera vs Ibarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Vera
Vera
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ibarra
Ibarra
2/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 10Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vera58%
×Draw23%
Ibarra18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vera
1.75
Ibarra
0.87

Vera creates 101% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 77 away

creates per match

Vera
1.50
Ibarra
0.88

allows per match

Vera
0.86
Ibarra
1.99

finishing

Vera+0.00on par
Ibarra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vera ↓

Ibarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vera or draw
82%
Vera or Ibarra
77%
Draw or Ibarra
42%

Winning margin

Vera wins by 2+
33%
Ibarra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vera 1+ goals
83%
Vera 2+ goals
52%
Vera 3+ goals
25%
Ibarra 1+ goals
58%
Ibarra 2+ goals
22%
Ibarra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vera (draw refunded)
76%
Ibarra (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Ibarra away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.99 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vera attack 1.50 + Ibarra defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ibarra attack 0.88 + Vera defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vera scores more
58%
level
23%
Ibarra scores more
18%

Vera at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Vera 1–0 Ibarra

Vera beat Ibarra 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma in Tenerife.