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Vera vs Gran Tarajal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Vera
Vera
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
5/1/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 34Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vera54%
×Draw25%
Gran Tarajal21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vera
1.63
Gran Tarajal
0.92

Vera creates 77% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 75 away

creates per match

Vera
1.50
Gran Tarajal
0.97

allows per match

Vera
0.86
Gran Tarajal
1.75

finishing

Vera+0.00on par
Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vera ↓

Gran Tarajal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vera or draw
79%
Vera or Gran Tarajal
75%
Draw or Gran Tarajal
46%

Winning margin

Vera wins by 2+
29%
Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vera 1+ goals
80%
Vera 2+ goals
48%
Vera 3+ goals
22%
Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
60%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
23%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vera (draw refunded)
72%
Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vera attack 1.50 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + Vera defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vera scores more
54%
level
25%
Gran Tarajal scores more
21%

Vera at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vera vs Gran Tarajal

Gran Tarajal beat Vera 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma in Tenerife.