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Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance — MLS Next Pro 2022

Ventura County
Ventura County
Preview
23:00
Tacoma Defiance
Tacoma Defiance
9/13/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageDignity Health Sports Park
Big match
39%
Ventura County
model favours
39%22%39%

Tacoma Defiance score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Ventura County39%
×Draw22%
Tacoma Defiance39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ventura County
1.81
Tacoma Defiance
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ventura County
1.67
Tacoma Defiance
1.65

allows per match

Ventura County
1.95
Tacoma Defiance
1.96

finishing

Ventura County+0.00on par
Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventura County ↓

Tacoma Defiance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ventura County or draw
61%
Ventura County or Tacoma Defiance
78%
Draw or Tacoma Defiance
61%

Winning margin

Ventura County wins by 2+
21%
Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ventura County 1+ goals
84%
Ventura County 2+ goals
54%
Ventura County 3+ goals
27%
Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals
83%
Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals
54%
Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Ventura County (draw refunded)
50%
Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventura County at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

Tacoma Defiance away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventura County attack 1.67 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.81

Tacoma Defiance attack 1.65 + Ventura County defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ventura County scores more
39%
level
22%
Tacoma Defiance scores more
39%

Ventura County at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ventura County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of Ventura County’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Tacoma Defiance’s matches
  • 44% of Ventura County’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 4.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
County
LWDWW
Defiance
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ventura County face Tacoma Defiance (MLS Next Pro)

MLS Next Pro returns with Ventura County hosting Tacoma Defiance. Match starts September 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ventura County host Tacoma Defiance at Dignity Health Sports Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.