Tacoma Defiance vs Ventura County — MLS Next Pro 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
Tacoma Defiance60%
Ventura County21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tacoma Defiance creates 74% more chances
Season form · 54 home / 37 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over73
- Under27
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes69
- No31
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tacoma Defiance ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tacoma Defiance at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.31 · 54 matches
Ventura County away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.35 · 37 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tacoma Defiance attack 2.52 + Ventura County defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.44
Ventura County attack 1.49 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 60%?"
Tacoma Defiance at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 60% does not mean "Tacoma Defiance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Toronto II
Rochester Rhinos
Bethlehem Steel
New York City II
Fort Lauderdale CF
New England II
Chicago FC United
Orlando City II
FC Cincinnati IITacoma Defiance
St. Louis City II
Houston Dynamo FC II
North Texas
San Jose Earthquakes II
Minnesota United II
Whitecaps II
Colorado Rapids II
Swope Park Rangers
Real Monarchs
Portland Timbers IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tacoma Defiance host Ventura County on Saturday, 23 May 2026 at 02:00. The match is part of the MLS Next Pro 2022/2023 season.
Tacoma Defiance 1 – 0 Ventura County
Tacoma Defiance beat Ventura County 1-0 in MLS Next Pro on May 23, 2026.
Goals: Y. Tsukanome (19').
The match was played at Starfire Sports.