Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance — MLS Next Pro 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 39+ matches
Ventura County39%
Tacoma Defiance39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 39 home / 51 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over70
- Under30
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes70
- No30
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ventura County ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ventura County at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches
Tacoma Defiance away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 51 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ventura County attack 1.67 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.81
Tacoma Defiance attack 1.65 + Ventura County defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.80
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Ventura County at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Ventura County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Toronto II
Rochester Rhinos
Bethlehem Steel
New York City II
Fort Lauderdale CF
New England II
Chicago FC United
Orlando City II
FC Cincinnati IITacoma Defiance
St. Louis City II
Houston Dynamo FC II
North Texas
San Jose Earthquakes II
Minnesota United II
Whitecaps II
Colorado Rapids II
Swope Park Rangers
Real Monarchs
Portland Timbers IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ventura County host Tacoma Defiance on Monday, 17 July 2023 at 00:00. The match is part of the MLS Next Pro 2022/2023 season.
Ventura County 1 – 1 Tacoma Defiance
Ventura County and Tacoma Defiance drew 1-1 in MLS Next Pro on July 17, 2023.
Goals: J. Pérez (10'), D. Teves (55', 120+3' pen), A. González (120+2' pen), N. Schelotto (120+4' pen), F. Daroma (120+5' pen), A. Picazo (120+6' pen), R. Miglietti (120+7' pen), D. Lopez (120+8' pen).
The match was played at Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California.