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Ventura County vs North Texas — MLS Next Pro 2022

Ventura County
Ventura County
Preview
23:00
North Texas
North Texas
7/31/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageDignity Health Sports Park
Big match
40%
North Texas
model favours
37%23%40%

North Texas score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Ventura County37%
×Draw23%
North Texas40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ventura County
1.60
North Texas
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 50 away

creates per match

Ventura County
1.67
North Texas
1.36

allows per match

Ventura County
1.95
North Texas
1.54

finishing

Ventura County+0.00on par
North Texas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventura County ↓

North Texas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ventura County or draw
60%
Ventura County or North Texas
77%
Draw or North Texas
63%

Winning margin

Ventura County wins by 2+
18%
North Texas wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ventura County 1+ goals
80%
Ventura County 2+ goals
47%
Ventura County 3+ goals
22%
North Texas 1+ goals
81%
North Texas 2+ goals
49%
North Texas 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ventura County (draw refunded)
48%
North Texas (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventura County at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

North Texas away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.54 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventura County attack 1.67 + North Texas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.60

North Texas attack 1.36 + Ventura County defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ventura County scores more
37%
level
23%
North Texas scores more
40%

North Texas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "North Texas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of North Texas’s matches
  • 73% of Ventura County’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • North Texas have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 60% over 2.5)
  • 44% of Ventura County’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
County
LWDWW
Texas
LWDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ventura County vs North Texas — Match Preview

Ventura County face North Texas on July 31, 2026 in this MLS Next Pro fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ventura County host North Texas at Dignity Health Sports Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.