North Texas vs Ventura County — MLS Next Pro 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
North Texas57%
Ventura County24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
North Texas creates 60% more chances
Season form · 47 home / 37 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over73
- Under27
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes70
- No30
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
North Texas ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
North Texas at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.45 · 47 matches
Ventura County away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.35 · 37 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
North Texas attack 2.36 + Ventura County defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.35
Ventura County attack 1.49 + North Texas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.47
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
North Texas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "North Texas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Columbus Crew II
Toronto II
Rochester Rhinos
Bethlehem Steel
New York City II
Fort Lauderdale CF
New England II
Chicago FC United
Orlando City II
FC Cincinnati II
Tacoma Defiance
St. Louis City II
Houston Dynamo FC IINorth Texas
San Jose Earthquakes II
Minnesota United II
Whitecaps II
Colorado Rapids II
Swope Park Rangers
Real Monarchs
Portland Timbers IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
North Texas host Ventura County on Sunday, 7 September 2025 at 00:30. The match is part of the MLS Next Pro 2022/2023 season.
Match Recap: North Texas vs Ventura County
North Texas and Ventura County drew 1-1 in MLS Next Pro on September 7, 2025.
The match was played at Choctaw Stadium.