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Ventura County vs New York RB II — USL Championship 2018

Ventura County
Ventura County
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
New York RB II
New York RB II
4/23/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 10Stubhub Center (Carson, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ventura County51%
×Draw21%
New York RB II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ventura County
2.12
New York RB II
1.53

Ventura County creates 39% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 79 away

creates per match

Ventura County
2.00
New York RB II
1.33

allows per match

Ventura County
1.73
New York RB II
2.23

finishing

Ventura County+0.00on par
New York RB II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventura County ↓

New York RB II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ventura County or draw
72%
Ventura County or New York RB II
79%
Draw or New York RB II
49%

Winning margin

Ventura County wins by 2+
30%
New York RB II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ventura County 1+ goals
88%
Ventura County 2+ goals
62%
Ventura County 3+ goals
35%
New York RB II 1+ goals
78%
New York RB II 2+ goals
45%
New York RB II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ventura County (draw refunded)
65%
New York RB II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventura County at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.73 · 75 matches

New York RB II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.23 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventura County attack 2.00 + New York RB II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.12

New York RB II attack 1.33 + Ventura County defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ventura County scores more
51%
level
21%
New York RB II scores more
28%

Ventura County at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ventura County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ventura County 1 – 1 New York RB II

Ventura County and New York RB II drew 1-1 in USL Championship on April 23, 2018.

The match was played at Stubhub Center (Carson, California).