Ventura County 3–1 Monterey Bay: Result & Stats

Ventura County

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Monterey Bay

4/17/2022

USL Championship · Round 9Dignity Health Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Ventura County52%

×Draw22%

Monterey Bay26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ventura CountyExpected goals in this matchMonterey Bay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.27

Ventura County

1.90

Monterey Bay

1.27

Ventura County creates 50% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 73 away

2.00

creates per match

0.81

1.73

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Ventura County

2.00

Monterey Bay

0.81

allows per match

Ventura County

1.73

Monterey Bay

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ventura County+0.00on par

Monterey Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventura County ↓

Monterey Bay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Ventura County or draw

74%

Ventura County or Monterey Bay

78%

Draw or Monterey Bay

48%

Winning margin

Ventura County wins by 2+

30%

Monterey Bay wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ventura County 1+ goals

85%

Ventura County 2+ goals

56%

Ventura County 3+ goals

29%

Monterey Bay 1+ goals

72%

Monterey Bay 2+ goals

36%

Monterey Bay 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ventura County (draw refunded)

67%

Monterey Bay (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventura County at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.73 · 75 matches

Monterey Bay away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.79 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventura County attack 2.00 + Monterey Bay defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.90

Monterey Bay attack 0.81 + Ventura County defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ventura County scores more

52%

level

22%

Monterey Bay scores more

26%

Ventura County at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ventura County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff