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Ventura County Fusion vs Golden State Force — USL League Two 2018

Ventura County Fusion
Ventura County Fusion
PST
02:00
Golden State Force
Golden State Force
7/4/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 47Ventura College Stadium (Ventura, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ventura County Fusion71%
×Draw17%
Golden State Force12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ventura County Fusion
2.35
Golden State Force
0.83

Ventura County Fusion creates 183% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ventura County Fusion
2.85
Golden State Force
0.86

allows per match

Ventura County Fusion
0.80
Golden State Force
1.86

finishing

Ventura County Fusion+0.00on par
Golden State Force+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventura County Fusion ↓

Golden State Force →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ventura County Fusion or draw
88%
Ventura County Fusion or Golden State Force
83%
Draw or Golden State Force
29%

Winning margin

Ventura County Fusion wins by 2+
48%
Golden State Force wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ventura County Fusion 1+ goals
90%
Ventura County Fusion 2+ goals
68%
Ventura County Fusion 3+ goals
41%
Golden State Force 1+ goals
56%
Golden State Force 2+ goals
20%
Golden State Force 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ventura County Fusion (draw refunded)
86%
Golden State Force (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventura County Fusion at home — creates 2.85, concedes 0.80 · 40 matches

Golden State Force away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventura County Fusion attack 2.85 + Golden State Force defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.35

Golden State Force attack 0.86 + Ventura County Fusion defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ventura County Fusion scores more
71%
level
17%
Golden State Force scores more
12%

Ventura County Fusion at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ventura County Fusion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ventura County Fusion vs Golden State Force — Match Preview

Ventura County Fusion face Golden State Force on July 4, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ventura County Fusion host Golden State Force at Ventura College Stadium (Ventura, California).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.