Golden State Force 1–2 Ventura County Fusion

Golden State Force

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ventura County Fusion

5/22/2022

USL League Two · Round 10Rio Hondo College Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Golden State Force39%

×Draw23%

Ventura County Fusion38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Golden State ForceExpected goals in this matchVentura County Fusion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.60

Golden State Force

1.62

Ventura County Fusion

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 41 away

1.92

creates per match

2.29

0.92

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Golden State Force

1.92

Ventura County Fusion

2.29

allows per match

Golden State Force

0.92

Ventura County Fusion

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Golden State Force+0.00on par

Ventura County Fusion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golden State Force ↓

Ventura County Fusion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Golden State Force or draw

62%

Golden State Force or Ventura County Fusion

77%

Draw or Ventura County Fusion

61%

Winning margin

Golden State Force wins by 2+

19%

Ventura County Fusion wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Golden State Force 1+ goals

80%

Golden State Force 2+ goals

48%

Golden State Force 3+ goals

22%

Ventura County Fusion 1+ goals

80%

Ventura County Fusion 2+ goals

47%

Ventura County Fusion 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Golden State Force (draw refunded)

51%

Ventura County Fusion (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golden State Force at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Ventura County Fusion away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golden State Force attack 1.92 + Ventura County Fusion defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.62

Ventura County Fusion attack 2.29 + Golden State Force defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Golden State Force scores more

39%

level

23%

Ventura County Fusion scores more

38%

Golden State Force at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Golden State Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff