Ventura County Fusion 2–0 Capo II: Result & Stats

Ventura County Fusion

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Capo II

7/6/2024

USL League Two · Western Conference - 17Ventura College Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ventura County Fusion63%

×Draw19%

Capo II18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ventura County FusionExpected goals in this matchCapo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.23

Ventura County Fusion

2.43

Capo II

1.23

Ventura County Fusion creates 98% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 13 away

3.32

creates per match

2.00

0.45

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Ventura County Fusion

3.32

Capo II

2.00

allows per match

Ventura County Fusion

0.45

Capo II

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ventura County Fusion+0.00on par

Capo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventura County Fusion ↓

Capo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Ventura County Fusion or draw

82%

Ventura County Fusion or Capo II

81%

Draw or Capo II

37%

Winning margin

Ventura County Fusion wins by 2+

41%

Capo II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ventura County Fusion 1+ goals

91%

Ventura County Fusion 2+ goals

69%

Ventura County Fusion 3+ goals

43%

Capo II 1+ goals

71%

Capo II 2+ goals

35%

Capo II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ventura County Fusion (draw refunded)

78%

Capo II (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventura County Fusion at home — creates 3.32, concedes 0.45 · 22 matches

Capo II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventura County Fusion attack 3.32 + Capo II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.43

Capo II attack 2.00 + Ventura County Fusion defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ventura County Fusion scores more

63%

level

19%

Capo II scores more

18%

Ventura County Fusion at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ventura County Fusion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff