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Ventforet Kofu vs Yokohama FC — J2 League 2018

Ventforet Kofu
Ventforet Kofu
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
3/26/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 6JIT Recycle Ink Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ventforet Kofu34%
×Draw27%
Yokohama FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ventforet Kofu
1.18
Yokohama FC
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 165 home / 86 away

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu
1.36
Yokohama FC
1.41

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu
1.12
Yokohama FC
1.00

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw
61%
Ventforet Kofu or Yokohama FC
73%
Draw or Yokohama FC
66%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+
14%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals
69%
Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals
33%
Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals
12%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
72%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
36%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)
47%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.12 · 165 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.36 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Yokohama FC attack 1.41 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more
34%
level
27%
Yokohama FC scores more
39%

Yokohama FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ventforet Kofu vs Yokohama FC

Yokohama FC beat Ventforet Kofu 2-1 in J2 League on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at JIT Recycle Ink Stadium in Kofu.