Ventforet Kofu 1–2 Vegalta Sendai: Result & Stats

Ventforet Kofu

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vegalta Sendai

J. Miyazaki 58'

Edu Mancha 55' (OG)

G. Onaiwu 29'

4/29/2025

J2 League · Round 12JIT Recycle Ink Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ventforet Kofu32%

×Draw29%

Vegalta Sendai39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ventforet KofuExpected goals in this matchVegalta Sendai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.17

Ventforet Kofu

1.04

Vegalta Sendai

1.17

Vegalta Sendai creates 13% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

1.14

creates per match

1.21

1.14

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.14

Vegalta Sendai

1.21

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.14

Vegalta Sendai

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Vegalta Sendai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw

61%

Ventforet Kofu or Vegalta Sendai

71%

Draw or Vegalta Sendai

68%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

12%

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

65%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

28%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

9%

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals

69%

Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals

33%

Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

45%

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Vegalta Sendai away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.14 + Vegalta Sendai defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.21 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more

32%

level

29%

Vegalta Sendai scores more

39%

Vegalta Sendai at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vegalta Sendai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

G. Onaiwu↳ Y. Goke

39'

Y. Tanaka

46'

Y. Koide← K. Kumakura

55'

Edu ManchaOwn goal

58'

J. Miyazaki↳ K. Mitsuhira

62'

S. Araki← G. Onaiwu

66'

K. Hayashida← K. Mitsuhira

78'

H. Takeda← T. Umeki

80'

Y. Hiratsuka← H. Endo

80'

Y. Naito← Y. Tanaka

87'

I. Kobayashi← S. Araki

90+6'

Edu Mancha

90+1'

Mateus Moraes← H. Kamada

90+1'

T. Yasuno← T. Mase

Ventforet

Vegalta

33

Hayashi

2

Takada

25

▼

5

44

39

6

11

A

Goke

10

▼

Kamada

27

⚽

▼

Onaiwu

18

▼

Umeki

1

Kawata

40

🥅

Mancha

3

Son

14

▼

Tanaka

7

▼

Araki

17

Tsuchiya

20

▼

Endo

11

▼

Kumakura

9

A

▼

Mitsuhira

29

Oshima

19

⚽

Miyazaki

Manager: Shinji Otsuka

46'▲Y. Koide←▼K. Kumakura

66'▲K. Hayashida←▼K. Mitsuhira

80'▲Y. Hiratsuka←▼H. Endo

80'▲Y. Naito←▼Y. Tanaka

87'▲I. Kobayashi←▼S. Araki

Ventforet Kofu substitutes

97Higashi2Inoue22Koide6Kobayashi4Yamamoto16Hayashida25Hiratsuka44Naito77Leiria

Manager: Yoshiro Moriyama

62'▲S. Araki←▼G. Onaiwu

78'▲H. Takeda←▼T. Umeki

90+1'▲Mateus Moraes←▼H. Kamada

90+1'▲T. Yasuno←▼T. Mase

Vegalta Sendai substitutes

21Umeda3Okuyama19Moraes8Takeda17Kudo24Myogan20Santos40Yasuno47Araki