Ventforet Kofu 0–3 Vegalta Sendai: Result & Stats

Ventforet Kofu

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Vegalta Sendai

4/8/2023

J2 League · Round 8JIT Recycle Ink Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Ventforet Kofu39%

×Draw27%

Vegalta Sendai35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ventforet KofuExpected goals in this matchVegalta Sendai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.25

Ventforet Kofu

1.33

Vegalta Sendai

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 165 home / 82 away

1.36

creates per match

1.37

1.12

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.36

Vegalta Sendai

1.37

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.12

Vegalta Sendai

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Vegalta Sendai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw

65%

Ventforet Kofu or Vegalta Sendai

73%

Draw or Vegalta Sendai

61%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

17%

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

74%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

38%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

15%

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals

71%

Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals

36%

Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

53%

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.12 · 165 matches

Vegalta Sendai away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.36 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.37 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more

39%

level

27%

Vegalta Sendai scores more

35%

Ventforet Kofu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff