Ventforet Kofu 1–1 Roasso Kumamoto: Result & Stats

Ventforet Kofu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Roasso Kumamoto

Y. Torikai 3'

K. Kumashiro 71' (pen)

6/15/2025

J2 League · Round 19JIT Recycle Ink Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ventforet Kofu40%

×Draw27%

Roasso Kumamoto33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ventforet KofuExpected goals in this matchRoasso Kumamoto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.21

Ventforet Kofu

1.36

Roasso Kumamoto

1.21

Ventforet Kofu creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.23

creates per match

1.27

1.15

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.23

Roasso Kumamoto

1.27

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.15

Roasso Kumamoto

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Roasso Kumamoto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw

67%

Ventforet Kofu or Roasso Kumamoto

73%

Draw or Roasso Kumamoto

60%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

19%

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

74%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

39%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

16%

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals

70%

Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals

34%

Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

55%

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Roasso Kumamoto away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.23 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.27 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more

40%

level

27%

Roasso Kumamoto scores more

33%

Ventforet Kofu at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Y. Torikai↳ Y. Tanaka

44'

W. Iwashita

61'

K. Oshima← Neemias

61'

C. Konagaya← R. Matsuoka

61'

K. Kumashiro← M. Handai

70'

S. Araki

71'

K. KumashiroPenalty

77'

Matheus Leiria← R. Nakayama

87'

Y. Takemoto← K. Fujii

88'

I. Kobayashi← S. Araki

88'

K. Mitsuhira← Y. Torikai

89'

K. Kuroki← S. Mishima

89'

K. Abe← W. Iwashita

90+5'

K. Oshima

Ventforet

Roasso

1

Sato

21

Toyoda

15

▼

Mishima

6

▼

4

3

8

17

▼

Fujii

18

▼

Handai

14

Shiohama

16

▼

Matsuoka

1

Kawata

24

Sato

7

▼

40

3

17

16

8

▼

Nakayama

49

▼

Neemias

10

⚽

▼

Torikai

14

A

Tanaka

Manager: Shinji Otsuka

61'▲K. Oshima←▼Neemias

77'▲Matheus Leiria←▼R. Nakayama

88'▲I. Kobayashi←▼S. Araki

88'▲K. Mitsuhira←▼Y. Torikai

Ventforet Kofu substitutes

97Higashi2Inoue22Koide6Kobayashi13Murakami20Endo77Leiria9Mitsuhira29Oshima

Manager: Takeshi Oki

61'▲C. Konagaya←▼R. Matsuoka

61'▲K. Kumashiro←▼M. Handai

87'▲Y. Takemoto←▼K. Fujii

89'▲K. Kuroki←▼S. Mishima

89'▲K. Abe←▼W. Iwashita

Roasso Kumamoto substitutes

23Sato2Kuroki5Abe24Ri7Takemoto10Konagaya19Watanabe27Negishi28Kumashiro