Ventforet Kofu vs Roasso Kumamoto — J2 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 104+ matches
Ventforet Kofu42%
Roasso Kumamoto32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ventforet Kofu creates 16% more chances
Season form · 165 home / 104 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ventforet Kofu ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.12 · 165 matches
Roasso Kumamoto away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.49 · 104 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ventforet Kofu attack 1.36 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43
Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.33 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Ventforet Kofu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ventforet Kofu host Roasso Kumamoto on Saturday, 21 July 2018 at 09:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Ventforet Kofu vs Roasso Kumamoto
Ventforet Kofu beat Roasso Kumamoto 3-2 in J2 League on July 21, 2018.
Goals: K. Sakamoto (14'), M. Yuzawa (45+1'), Y. Horigome (58'), T. Shimakawa (65'), S. Maki (84').
The match was played at Yamanashi Chuo Bank Stadium (Kofu).