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Ventforet Kofu vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

Ventforet Kofu
Ventforet Kofu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
5/14/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 16JIT Recycle Ink Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 165+ matches

Ventforet Kofu46%
×Draw27%
Renofa Yamaguchi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ventforet Kofu
1.43
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.05

Ventforet Kofu creates 36% more chances

Season form · 165 home / 168 away

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu
1.36
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu
1.12
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw
72%
Ventforet Kofu or Renofa Yamaguchi
73%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
54%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+
22%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals
76%
Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals
42%
Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals
17%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
65%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
28%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)
62%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.12 · 165 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.36 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more
46%
level
27%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
28%

Ventforet Kofu at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Ventforet Kofu 1–1 Renofa Yamaguchi

Ventforet Kofu and Renofa Yamaguchi drew 1-1 in J2 League on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at JIT Recycle Ink Stadium in Kofu.