Renofa Yamaguchi vs Ventforet Kofu — J2 League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 24+ matches
Renofa Yamaguchi41%
Ventforet Kofu31%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Renofa Yamaguchi creates 18% more chances
Season form · 24 home / 31 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Renofa Yamaguchi ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Renofa Yamaguchi at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches
Ventforet Kofu away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Renofa Yamaguchi attack 1.29 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31
Ventforet Kofu attack 1.23 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Renofa Yamaguchi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Renofa Yamaguchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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Parceiro NaganoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Renofa Yamaguchi host Ventforet Kofu on Monday, 11 August 2025 at 10:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2025/2026 season.
J2 League: Renofa Yamaguchi 0–1 Ventforet Kofu
Ventforet Kofu beat Renofa Yamaguchi 1-0 in J2 League on August 11, 2025.
Goals: Y. Naito (40').
The match was played at Ishin Me-Life Stadium in Yamaguchi.