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Ventforet Kofu vs Omiya Ardija — J2 League 2018

Ventforet Kofu
Ventforet Kofu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Omiya Ardija
Omiya Ardija
7/19/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 6Yamanashi Chuo Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Ventforet Kofu42%
×Draw27%
Omiya Ardija31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ventforet Kofu
1.34
Omiya Ardija
1.12

Ventforet Kofu creates 20% more chances

Season form · 165 home / 146 away

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu
1.36
Omiya Ardija
1.12

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu
1.12
Omiya Ardija
1.32

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par
Omiya Ardija+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Omiya Ardija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw
69%
Ventforet Kofu or Omiya Ardija
73%
Draw or Omiya Ardija
58%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+
19%
Omiya Ardija wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals
74%
Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals
39%
Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals
15%
Omiya Ardija 1+ goals
67%
Omiya Ardija 2+ goals
31%
Omiya Ardija 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)
57%
Omiya Ardija (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.12 · 165 matches

Omiya Ardija away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.36 + Omiya Ardija defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.34

Omiya Ardija attack 1.12 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more
42%
level
27%
Omiya Ardija scores more
31%

Ventforet Kofu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ventforet Kofu vs Omiya Ardija

Ventforet Kofu beat Omiya Ardija 1-0 in J2 League on July 19, 2020.

The match was played at Yamanashi Chuo Bank Stadium in Kofu.