Omiya Ardija vs Ventforet Kofu — League #1235 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Omiya Ardija38%
Ventforet Kofu33%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Omiya Ardija creates 10% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Omiya Ardija ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Omiya Ardija at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches
Ventforet Kofu away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Omiya Ardija attack 1.60 + Ventforet Kofu defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.18
Ventforet Kofu attack 0.75 + Omiya Ardija defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Omiya Ardija at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Omiya Ardija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Omiya Ardija
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Sagan Tosu
Kamatamare Sanuki
Vegalta Sendai
Fujieda MYFC
Albirex NiigataVentforet Kofu
Iwaki
Sagamihara
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Kanazawa
Nara Club
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Osaka
Kataller Toyama
Fukushima United
Tochigi SC
Ehime FC
Consadole Sapporo
Kitakyushu
Tokushima Vortis
Kochi United
Tochigi City
Kagoshima United
Matsumoto Yamaga
Gainare Tottori
Renofa Yamaguchi
Jubilo Iwata
FC Gifu
Parceiro Nagano
Biwako Shiga
Shonan Bellmare
Roasso Kumamoto
FC Ryukyu
Yokohama FC
Vanraure Hachinohe
Oita Trinita
Montedio Yamagata
ImabariIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Omiya Ardija host Ventforet Kofu on Wednesday, 29 April 2026 at 05:00. The match is part of the League #1235 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Omiya Ardija vs Ventforet Kofu
Ventforet Kofu beat Omiya Ardija 2-1 in League #1235 on April 29, 2026.
Goals: R. Ota (27'), K. Sato (29'), K. Sugimoto (55' pen).
The match was played at NACK5 Stadium Omiya in Saitama.