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Ventforet Kofu vs Kashiwa Reysol — J2 League 2018

Ventforet Kofu
Ventforet Kofu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
9/14/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 32Yamanashi Chuo Bank Stadium (Kofu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ventforet Kofu31%
×Draw28%
Kashiwa Reysol42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ventforet Kofu
1.08
Kashiwa Reysol
1.30

Kashiwa Reysol creates 20% more chances

Season form · 165 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu
1.36
Kashiwa Reysol
1.48

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu
1.12
Kashiwa Reysol
0.81

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par
Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw
58%
Ventforet Kofu or Kashiwa Reysol
72%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
69%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+
12%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals
66%
Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals
29%
Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals
10%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
73%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
37%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)
43%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.12 · 165 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.36 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.08

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.48 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more
31%
level
28%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
42%

Kashiwa Reysol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Ventforet Kofu 1–1 Kashiwa Reysol

Ventforet Kofu and Kashiwa Reysol drew 1-1 in J2 League on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Yamanashi Chuo Bank Stadium (Kofu).