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Venta vs TransINVEST Vilnius — Cup 2020

Venta
Venta
FT
1 – 10
HT: 1 – 3
TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilnius
O. Lapukas 2'
A. A. Oluwatomisin 79', 72', 49', 26'
A. Rakasius 63' (OG)
S. Jeudi 61', 25', 7'
N. Petkus 56'
T. Steponavicius 55'
4/22/2026CupCup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Venta2%
×Draw3%
TransINVEST Vilnius95%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venta
0.86
TransINVEST Vilnius
5.77

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 571% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Venta
1.33
TransINVEST Vilnius
6.20

allows per match

Venta
5.33
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.40

finishing

Venta+0.00on par
TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venta ↓

TransINVEST Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–37%
0–49%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–36%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–32%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (9%) · grid covers 49% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

Venta or draw
5%
Venta or TransINVEST Vilnius
97%
Draw or TransINVEST Vilnius
98%

Winning margin

Venta wins by 2+
0%
TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+
87%

Team goals

Venta 1+ goals
58%
Venta 2+ goals
21%
Venta 3+ goals
6%
TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals
100%
TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals
97%
TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals
89%

Draw no bet

Venta (draw refunded)
2%
TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venta at home — creates 1.33, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

TransINVEST Vilnius away — creates 6.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venta attack 1.33 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 6.20 + Venta defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 5.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Venta scores more
2%
level
3%
TransINVEST Vilnius scores more
95%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
O. Lapukas
7'
S. Jeudi
25'
S. Jeudi
26'
A. A. Oluwatomisin
49'
A. A. Oluwatomisin
55'
T. Steponavicius
56'
N. Petkus
61'
S. Jeudi
63'
A. RakasiusOwn goal
72'
A. A. Oluwatomisin
79'
A. A. Oluwatomisin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Venta vs TransINVEST Vilnius

TransINVEST Vilnius beat Venta 10-1 in Cup on April 22, 2026.

Goals: O. Lapukas (2'), S. Jeudi (7', 25', 61'), A. A. Oluwatomisin (26', 49', 72', 79'), T. Steponavicius (55'), N. Petkus (56'), A. Rakasius (63' o.g.).