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Venta vs BFA — Cup 2020

Venta
Venta
FT
0 – 4
BFA
BFA
4/19/2024CupCup · 1st RoundKuršėnų SM stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Venta6%
×Draw9%
BFA85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venta
1.33
BFA
4.58

BFA creates 244% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Venta
1.33
BFA
3.83

allows per match

Venta
5.33
BFA
1.33

finishing

Venta+0.00on par
BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venta ↓

BFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–35%
0–46%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Venta or draw
15%
Venta or BFA
91%
Draw or BFA
94%

Winning margin

Venta wins by 2+
2%
BFA wins by 2+
71%

Team goals

Venta 1+ goals
74%
Venta 2+ goals
38%
Venta 3+ goals
15%
BFA 1+ goals
99%
BFA 2+ goals
93%
BFA 3+ goals
80%

Draw no bet

Venta (draw refunded)
7%
BFA (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venta at home — creates 1.33, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

BFA away — creates 3.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venta attack 1.33 + BFA defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

BFA attack 3.83 + Venta defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 4.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Venta scores more
6%
level
9%
BFA scores more
85%

BFA at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "BFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Venta 0–4 BFA

BFA beat Venta 4-0 in Cup on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Kuršėnų SM stadionas in Kuršėnai.