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Vénissieux vs Annecy — Coupe de France 2018

Vénissieux
Vénissieux
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Annecy
Annecy
2/13/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 8th RoundStade Laurent Gérin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vénissieux15%
×Draw20%
Annecy64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vénissieux
0.88
Annecy
2.04

Annecy creates 132% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Vénissieux
0.75
Annecy
2.58

allows per match

Vénissieux
1.50
Annecy
1.00

finishing

Vénissieux+0.00on par
Annecy+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vénissieux ↓

Annecy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vénissieux or draw
36%
Vénissieux or Annecy
80%
Draw or Annecy
85%

Winning margin

Vénissieux wins by 2+
5%
Annecy wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Vénissieux 1+ goals
59%
Vénissieux 2+ goals
22%
Vénissieux 3+ goals
6%
Annecy 1+ goals
87%
Annecy 2+ goals
60%
Annecy 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Vénissieux (draw refunded)
19%
Annecy (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vénissieux at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Annecy away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vénissieux attack 0.75 + Annecy defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Annecy attack 2.58 + Vénissieux defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Vénissieux scores more
15%
level
20%
Annecy scores more
64%

Annecy at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Annecy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Vénissieux 0–1 Annecy

Annecy beat Vénissieux 1-0 in Coupe de France on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Laurent Gérin in Vénissieux.