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Venezuela W vs Thailand W — Friendlies Women 2026

Venezuela W
Venezuela W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Thailand W
Thailand W
O. Altuve 85' (pen)
Y. Viso 12'
10/24/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Centro de Alto Rendimiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Venezuela W57%
×Draw24%
Thailand W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venezuela W
1.65
Thailand W
0.83

Venezuela W creates 99% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Venezuela W
1.22
Thailand W
1.00

allows per match

Venezuela W
0.67
Thailand W
2.07

finishing

Venezuela W+0.00on par
Thailand W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezuela W ↓

Thailand W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Venezuela W or draw
81%
Venezuela W or Thailand W
76%
Draw or Thailand W
43%

Winning margin

Venezuela W wins by 2+
31%
Thailand W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Venezuela W 1+ goals
81%
Venezuela W 2+ goals
49%
Venezuela W 3+ goals
23%
Thailand W 1+ goals
56%
Thailand W 2+ goals
20%
Thailand W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Venezuela W (draw refunded)
75%
Thailand W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezuela W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Thailand W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezuela W attack 1.22 + Thailand W defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

Thailand W attack 1.00 + Venezuela W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Venezuela W scores more
57%
level
24%
Thailand W scores more
19%

Venezuela W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Venezuela W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Y. Viso
85'
O. AltuvePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Venezuela W vs Thailand W

Venezuela W beat Thailand W 2-0 in Friendlies Women on October 24, 2024.

Goals: Y. Viso (12'), O. Altuve (85' pen).

The match was played at Centro de Alto Rendimiento in D.F..