Venezuela 3–6 Colombia: Result & Stats | League #34

Venezuela

FT

3 – 6

HT: 2 – 2

Colombia

S. Rondon 76'

J. Martinez 12'

T. Segovia 3'

J. Cordoba 78'

L. Suarez 67', 59', 50', 42'

Y. Mina 10'

9/9/2025

League #34 · Group Stage - 18Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Venezuela29%

×Draw25%

Colombia45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VenezuelaExpected goals in this matchColombia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.52

Venezuela

1.17

Colombia

1.52

Colombia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

1.60

1.43

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Venezuela

1.33

Colombia

1.60

allows per match

Venezuela

1.43

Colombia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venezuela+0.00on par

Colombia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezuela ↓

Colombia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Venezuela or draw

55%

Venezuela or Colombia

75%

Draw or Colombia

71%

Winning margin

Venezuela wins by 2+

12%

Colombia wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Venezuela 1+ goals

69%

Venezuela 2+ goals

33%

Venezuela 3+ goals

11%

Colombia 1+ goals

78%

Colombia 2+ goals

45%

Colombia 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Venezuela (draw refunded)

39%

Colombia (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezuela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Colombia away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezuela attack 1.33 + Colombia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Colombia attack 1.60 + Venezuela defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Venezuela scores more

29%

level

25%

Colombia scores more

45%

Colombia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Colombia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

L. Suarez

Colombia · F

9.9

Match Events

3'

T. Segovia↳ S. Rondon

10'

Y. Mina↳ J. Rodriguez

12'

J. Martinez

42'

L. Suarez

50'

L. Suarez↳ J. Rodriguez

59'

63'

63'

67'

68'

J. Quintero← J. Rodriguez

69'

J. Savarino← J. Martinez

69'

J. Cordoba← L. Suarez

74'

C. Casseres← T. Segovia

76'

S. Rondon

77'

J. Arias← K. Castano

78'

J. Cordoba↳ J. Quintero

86'

J. Portilla← J. Lerma

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VenezuelaColombia

Overview

36%Possession64%

11Total Shots13

3Corners2

14Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots13

8On Target9

2Off Target3

1Blocked1

9Inside Box9

2Outside Box4

Passing

36%Possession64%

286Total Passes517

223Accurate Passes432

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Offsides0