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Venezuela vs Canada — Copa America 2019

Venezuela
Venezuela
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Canada
Canadaadvanced
J. Cádiz 120+9' (pen)
T. Rincón 120+5' (pen)
S. Rondón 120+1' (pen), 64'
I. Koné 120+12' (pen)
A. Davies 120+10' (pen)
M. Bombito 120+6' (pen)
J. David 120+2' (pen)
J. Shaffelburg 13'
7/6/2024Copa AmericaCopa America · Quarter-finalsAT&T Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Venezuela38%
×Draw39%
Canada23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venezuela
0.79
Canada
0.54

Venezuela creates 46% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Venezuela
0.25
Canada
0.33

allows per match

Venezuela
0.75
Canada
1.33

finishing

Venezuela+0.00on par
Canada+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Under
  • Under85
  • Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezuela ↓

Canada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–026%
0–114%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
74%26%1.5
38%62%2.5
15%85%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Venezuela or draw
77%
Venezuela or Canada
61%
Draw or Canada
62%

Winning margin

Venezuela wins by 2+
12%
Canada wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Venezuela 1+ goals
55%
Venezuela 2+ goals
19%
Venezuela 3+ goals
5%
Canada 1+ goals
42%
Canada 2+ goals
10%
Canada 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Venezuela (draw refunded)
63%
Canada (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezuela at home — creates 0.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Canada away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezuela attack 0.25 + Canada defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Canada attack 0.33 + Venezuela defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Venezuela scores more
38%
level
39%
Canada scores more
23%

Venezuela at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
J. AramburuVenezuelaVenezuela · D
8.9

Match Events

13'
J. Shaffelburg
36'
Jacob Shaffelburg
50'
Derek Cornelius
60'
J. Cádiz← C. Cásseres
62'
L. Millar← J. Shaffelburg
64'
S. Rondón↳ J. Aramburu
72'
T. Oluwaseyi← C. Larin
72'
A. Ahmed← R. Laryea
81'
I. Koné← J. Osorio
84'
J. Savarino← Y. Soteldo
84'
M. Lacava← E. Bello
90+4'
Jon Aramburu
90+2'
T. Rincón← J. Martínez
90+1'
W. Ángel← Y. Osorio
120+1'
S. RondónPenalty
120+2'
J. DavidPenalty
120+3'
Y. HerreraMissed penalty
120+4'
L. MillarMissed penalty
120+5'
T. RincónPenalty
120+6'
M. BombitoPenalty
120+7'
J. SavarinoMissed penalty
120+8'
S. EustaquioMissed penalty
120+9'
J. CádizPenalty
120+10'
A. DaviesPenalty
120+11'
W. ÁngelMissed penalty
120+12'
I. KonéPenalty

Possession

55%Venezuela

Shots

16Venezuela

Pass accuracy

50%Venezuela

Statistics

VenezuelaCanada
Overview
55%Possession45%
16Total Shots16
0.97Expected Goals (xG)1.87
7Corners3
7Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots16
3On Target7
8Off Target8
5Blocked1
12Inside Box12
4Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
411Total Passes341
303Accurate Passes253
74%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
-0.77Goals Prevented-0.77
Discipline
7Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides0

Copa America: Venezuela 1–1 Canada

Venezuela and Canada drew 1-1 in Copa America on July 6, 2024.

Goals: J. Shaffelburg (13'), S. Rondón (64', 120+1' pen), J. David (120+2' pen), T. Rincón (120+5' pen), M. Bombito (120+6' pen), J. Cádiz (120+9' pen), A. Davies (120+10' pen), I. Koné (120+12' pen).

Venezuela controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.