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Venezuela U17 vs Chile U17 — Friendlies 2026

Venezuela U17
Venezuela U17
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chile U17
Chile U17
J. Mancilla 75' (pen)
D. Claut 60'
D. Molina 82'
6/26/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Venezuela U1764%
×Draw18%
Chile U1719%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venezuela U17
2.63
Chile U17
1.38

Venezuela U17 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Venezuela U17
2.75
Chile U17
1.00

allows per match

Venezuela U17
1.75
Chile U17
2.50

finishing

Venezuela U17+0.00on par
Chile U17+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezuela U17 ↓

Chile U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Venezuela U17 or draw
81%
Venezuela U17 or Chile U17
82%
Draw or Chile U17
36%

Winning margin

Venezuela U17 wins by 2+
43%
Chile U17 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Venezuela U17 1+ goals
93%
Venezuela U17 2+ goals
73%
Venezuela U17 3+ goals
48%
Chile U17 1+ goals
75%
Chile U17 2+ goals
40%
Chile U17 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Venezuela U17 (draw refunded)
77%
Chile U17 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezuela U17 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Chile U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezuela U17 attack 2.75 + Chile U17 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.63

Chile U17 attack 1.00 + Venezuela U17 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Venezuela U17 scores more
64%
level
18%
Chile U17 scores more
19%

Venezuela U17 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Venezuela U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
D. Claut
75'
J. MancillaPenalty
82'
D. Molina
Venezuela
Chile
O. Vizcarrondo
Manager: O. Vizcarrondo
S. Miranda
Manager: S. Miranda

Match Recap: Venezuela U17 vs Chile U17

Venezuela U17 beat Chile U17 2-1 in Friendlies on June 26, 2025.

Goals: D. Claut (60'), J. Mancilla (75' pen), D. Molina (82').