Venezia 1–0 Juve Stabia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Venezia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juve Stabia

Y. Maleh 45+2'

7/24/2020

Serie B · Round 36Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Venezia50%

×Draw25%

Juve Stabia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeneziaExpected goals in this matchJuve Stabia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.02

Venezia

1.56

Juve Stabia

1.02

Venezia creates 53% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 60 away

1.60

creates per match

0.92

1.12

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Venezia

1.60

Juve Stabia

0.92

allows per match

Venezia

1.12

Juve Stabia

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venezia+0.00on par

Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia ↓

Juve Stabia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Venezia or draw

75%

Venezia or Juve Stabia

75%

Draw or Juve Stabia

50%

Winning margin

Venezia wins by 2+

26%

Juve Stabia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Venezia 1+ goals

79%

Venezia 2+ goals

46%

Venezia 3+ goals

21%

Juve Stabia 1+ goals

64%

Juve Stabia 2+ goals

27%

Juve Stabia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Venezia (draw refunded)

67%

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.12 · 117 matches

Juve Stabia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia attack 1.60 + Juve Stabia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Juve Stabia attack 0.92 + Venezia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Venezia scores more

50%

level

25%

Juve Stabia scores more

25%

Venezia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Marco Modolo

Venezia · D

7.3

Match Events

45+2'

Y. Maleh↳ I. Lakićević

46'

L. Canotto← R. Vitiello

46'

G. Ricci← A. Mastalli

47'

A. Vacca

52'

M. Modolo

59'

A. Fiordilino← A. Vacca

66'

A. Rossi← A. Bifulco

66'

B. Addae← S. Calvano

73'

A. Rossi

74'

M. Aramu← A. Montalto

80'

F. Melara← A. Mallamo

84'

G. Calo

86'

S. Suciu← L. Lollo

86'

A. Marino← S. Longo

86'

G. Monachello← A. Capello

90+3'

G. Monachello

90+3'

N. Allievi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VeneziaJuve

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots9

3Corners7

24Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots9

5On Target2

2Off Target5

2Blocked2

6Inside Box5

3Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

363Total Passes367

272Accurate Passes278

75%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

24Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3