Venezia 6–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi: Result & Stats

Venezia

FT

6 – 0

Dolomiti Bellunesi

7/30/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadio Rodolfo Zandegiacomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Venezia81%

×Draw10%

Dolomiti Bellunesi9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeneziaExpected goals in this matchDolomiti Bellunesi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.23

1.47

Venezia

4.23

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.47

Venezia creates 188% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

3.80

creates per match

1.33

1.60

allows per match

4.67

creates per match

Venezia

3.80

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.33

allows per match

Venezia

1.60

Dolomiti Bellunesi

4.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venezia+0.00on par

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–12%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–18%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

79%21%4.5

62%38%

Double chance

Venezia or draw

91%

Venezia or Dolomiti Bellunesi

90%

Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi

19%

Winning margin

Venezia wins by 2+

65%

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Venezia 1+ goals

98%

Venezia 2+ goals

91%

Venezia 3+ goals

76%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals

77%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals

43%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Venezia (draw refunded)

90%

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia at home — creates 3.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia attack 3.80 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 4.23

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.33 + Venezia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Venezia scores more

81%

level

10%

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more

9%

Venezia at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff