Venezia 2–1 Brescia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Venezia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Brescia

F. Di Mariano 37', 14'

A. Donnarumma 90+2'

11/24/2018

Serie B · Round 13Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Venezia43%

×Draw26%

Brescia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeneziaExpected goals in this matchBrescia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.17

Venezia

1.44

Brescia

1.17

Venezia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 120 away

1.60

creates per match

1.21

1.12

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Venezia

1.60

Brescia

1.21

allows per match

Venezia

1.12

Brescia

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venezia+0.00on par

Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia ↓

Brescia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Venezia or draw

69%

Venezia or Brescia

74%

Draw or Brescia

57%

Winning margin

Venezia wins by 2+

21%

Brescia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Venezia 1+ goals

76%

Venezia 2+ goals

42%

Venezia 3+ goals

18%

Brescia 1+ goals

69%

Brescia 2+ goals

33%

Brescia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Venezia (draw refunded)

58%

Brescia (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.12 · 117 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia attack 1.60 + Brescia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Brescia attack 1.21 + Venezia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Venezia scores more

43%

level

26%

Brescia scores more

31%

Venezia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

F. Di Mariano↳ G. Vrioni

16'

17'

23'

30'

37'

F. Di Mariano↳ M. Pinato

46'

Felipe Curcio← A. Semprini

57'

S. Suciu← N. Citro

63'

G. Litteri← G. Vrioni

70'

L. Morosini← J. DallOglio

72'

Aleš Matějů

79'

J. Segre← M. Pinato

83'

Simone Bentivoglio

86'

A. Martinelli← A. Matějů

90'

Guglielmo Vicario

90+2'

A. Donnarumma↳ D. Bisoli

Possession

Shots

Statistics

VeneziaBrescia

Overview

31%Possession69%

4Total Shots12

6Corners6

5Fouls19

Shots

4Total Shots12

3On Target6

1Off Target6

Passing

31%Possession69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

5Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

4Offsides4