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Brescia vs Venezia — Serie B 2018

Brescia
Brescia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Venezia
Venezia
9/23/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 6Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Brescia39%
×Draw27%
Venezia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia
1.29
Venezia
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 118 away

creates per match

Brescia
1.50
Venezia
1.22

allows per match

Brescia
1.17
Venezia
1.07

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par
Venezia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Venezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Brescia or draw
66%
Brescia or Venezia
73%
Draw or Venezia
61%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+
17%
Venezia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals
72%
Brescia 2+ goals
37%
Brescia 3+ goals
14%
Venezia 1+ goals
70%
Venezia 2+ goals
33%
Venezia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)
53%
Venezia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 115 matches

Venezia away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.50 + Venezia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Venezia attack 1.22 + Brescia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Brescia scores more
39%
level
27%
Venezia scores more
34%

Brescia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Brescia 0–0 Venezia

Brescia and Venezia drew 0-0 in Serie B on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.